Archive for the 'Analysis' Category

30
Jun
15

Music Streaming Revisited – the International Music Streaming Market 2014

Music streaming is on the rise. In the recent IFPI report “Recording Industry in Numbers 2014″ IFPI CEO Frances Moore is cited with “Streaming is now a mainstream part of the modern music industry.” (IFPI 2015: 5) Indeed, global subscription streaming revenue increased by 39.0 per cent and ad-supported streaming revenue by 38.6 per cent in 2014. In 2014, the global music streaming market (ad-supported as well as subscription) has a volume of US $2.2bn, which is even bigger than the single track download market (US $1.9bn) (IFPI 2015: 9). Music streaming, therefore, accounts for nearly a third of the global recorded music market. However, the market share of music streaming differs between countries. Whereas in Sweden the music streaming market share is 70 per cent of the overall recorded music market, in Germany just 6.3 per cent of the recorded music revenue comes from music streaming sources. And Japan, the second largest recorded music market in world, lags behind with meagre 3.1 per cent.

In the following I would like to highlight the economic relevance of the music streaming market segment in an international comparison.

Continue reading ‘Music Streaming Revisited – the International Music Streaming Market 2014′

16
Apr
15

The Recorded Music Market in Germany, 2003-2014

The recently published figures of the recorded music market in Germany show a picture of stability. Compared to 2013, the recorded music sales increased by 1.8 percent to EUR 1.48bn as reported by IFPI Germany (Bundesverband Musikindustrie – BVMI) in the latest Yearbook on the Recorded Music Industry in Germany (Jahrbuch zur Musikindustrie in Deutschland). The still fast growing revenues from the music streaming business are the main reason for the modest overall sales growth of 1.8 percent. The revenues from music subscription rose by 77.0 percent to EUR 108.0m compared to 2013. In the same period, however, long-play download sales (mainly digital album sales) declined for the first time – by1.4 percent to EUR 145.0m. The single track download sales again decreased – after a sales decline of 4.6 percent in 2013 – by 7.4 percent to EUR 100.0m. The physical music sales are still declining by 1.7 percent in 2014. Nevertheless physical sales are still dominant on the German recorded music market with share of 74.9 percent (without revenues from neighbouring rights collecting society GVL and from synchronisation). The CD is still the most important audio format of the recorded music market in Germany with sales of EUR 985.0m and a market share of 66.7 percent.

The details of the development of the recorded music market in Germany from 2003-2014 are highlighted in the following analysis.

Continue reading ‘The Recorded Music Market in Germany, 2003-2014′

26
Mar
15

The recorded music market in the US, 2000-2014

2014 seems to be the watershed year in the recorded music business in the US. According to the recently published sales figures (shipment value) of the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA), the revenue of US $1.87bn from music streaming (SoundExchange distributions as well as subscription & ad-supported streaming) accounted for 41.4 percent of the digital music sales. Whereas music streaming revenue increased by 30 percent in 2014, digital album sales declined for the first time by 6.7 percent to US $1.16bn and digital singles’ sales by 10.2 percent to US $1.41bn. Additionally, the CD has become a by-product with a market share of just 27.4 percent (US $1.86bn). CD sales again decreased by 12.7 percent in 2014. All in all, digital music sales accounted for 66.5 percent of the US $6.78bn overall recorded music sales (except synchronization royalties). The total recorded music revenue slightly decreased by 0.4 percent compared to 2013.

 

In the following long-term analysis of the recorded music market in the US, the digitization process in past fourteen years is also highlighted as well as the tremendous change in the digital music market segment.

Continue reading ‘The recorded music market in the US, 2000-2014′

03
Jan
15

Music Business Research 2014 – in retrospective

Dear readers of the music business research blog,

Music streaming dominated the music business year 2014. Taylor Swift attracted global media attention when she pulled her music catalogue from Spotify music streaming service blaming the Swedish company for insufficient royalty payments. She, thus, followed the footsteps of Radiohead’s Thom Yorke and other artists who have criticized Spotify and other streaming services for poor payouts – a fact also highlighted in my blog post “Is Streaming the Next Big Thing? – The artists’ perspective”.

Nevertheless, music streaming has been a booming business model in 2014. Revenues from music streaming increased in almost all markets – e.g. in the U.S., Japan, Germany and Brazil. New services have been launched such as Amazon’s Prime Music and YouTube’s Music Key. And music subscription service Beats was part of the largest takeover in the music industry when Apple purchased Beats Electronics, but mainly for the valuable headphone line. Apple again was in the headlines when it announced that the latest U2 album “Songs of Innocence” was given away for free to all the Apple users – a US $100m marketing campaign for Apple with questionable results.

The business model of music streaming was also one of the main topics of the 5th Vienna Music Business Research Days on “How to Monetize Music in the Digital Age” (October 1-3, 2014), which were held the first time in cooperation with the Waves Vienna Festival & Conference at the University of Music and Performing Arts Vienna. A conference track day supplemented for the first time the Young Scholars’ Workshop and the invited conference day with conference papers presented by academics from Austria, Australia, Brazil, Croatia, Germany, Hungary, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom. In the course of the VMBR-Days the best paper of the Young Scholars’ Workshop was awarded for to Jordana Viotto da Cruz of University 13 Paris and to Esther Bishop of Zeppelin University Friedrichshafen. Both papers are considered for publication in the International Journal of Music Business Research (IJMBR).

Continue reading ‘Music Business Research 2014 – in retrospective’

01
Jun
14

The Recorded Music Market in Brazil, 2000-2013

Brazil is the ninth largest phonographic market in the world according to the latest IFPI report, despite the fact that the revenue from recorded music sales has decreased by 58 percent since 2000. However, the Brazilian market for recorded music is more or less stable for six years now due to relatively high music video sales and the considerable growth of the digital music segment. Thus, the digital music sales have increased by 82.2 percent from BRL 24.3m to BRL 136.7m with music streaming playing an increasingly important role in the sales mix. In the following I highlight the Brazilian recorded music market by figures reported by the Associação Brasileira dos Produtores de Discos (ABPD).

Continue reading ‘The Recorded Music Market in Brazil, 2000-2013′

24
Apr
14

How bad is YouTube?

In the past few years several studies on the impact of P2P music file sharing on recorded music sales were published. They came to very different and even conflicting results, as I highlighted in a 25 part blog series. A recently published study now shifts the focus from file sharing to music video online streaming. R. Scott Hiller of Fairfield University and Jin-Hyuk Kim of University of Colorado Boulder analysed the sales displacement effect of YouTube in a paper entitled “Online Music, Sales Displacement, and Internet Search: Evidence from YouTube“. They concluded that Warner Music Group sold significantly more units of its Billboard 200 albums, when the Warner content was removed from YouTube due to a conflict on licensing fees. In addition, they found no evidence that the blackout had a negative promotional effect for Warner artists.

You can read more about this study and my assessment of the results here:

Continue reading ‘How bad is YouTube?’

31
Mar
14

The Recorded Music Market in Japan, 1990-2013

Compared to other markets, the world’s second largest recorded music market is very different – at least in respect to digitization. Whereas the digital music segment is booming in other large markets, it is shrinking in Japan according to the latest report of the Recording Industry Association of Japan (RIAJ). In 2013, the total digital music sales were ¥ 41bn (EUR 290m) compared to ¥ 54bn (EUR 383m) a year before – a drop of 23 percent. The main reason for this surprising decrease is a shrinking mobile music market that lost 56.7 percent of its volume from 2012 to 2013. The drop was even more dramatic if we look back to 2008, when mobile music sales accounted for ¥ 79.9bn (EUR 566.0m) – fivefold in value than in 2013. The main driver for the sales drop was not – as might be supposed – the shrinking market for mastertones and ringback tunes, but tremendously falling single track download sales on mobile phones. Whereas mastertones and ringback tunes sales decreased by 75.9 percent and ¥ -21.8bn (EUR -154.4m) respectively from 2008 to 2013, the decline of mobile single tracks download sales was even more severe with 83.7 percent and ¥ -39.9bn (EUR -282.6m) respectively in the same period. We have to take into consideration, however, that RIAJ does not count downloads from smartphones and tablets as mobile music downloads, but as desktop downloads from the Internet, which strongly increased in the past few years. The value of single track downloads on the Internet was ¥ 14.8bn (EUR 104.8m) in 2013and Internet album download sales were at ¥ 14.8bn (EUR 104.8m) resulting in a growth of both segments of about 150 percent compared to 2008. Since the current value of Internet music downloads is much lower than the former volume of the mobile music segment, the total digital music sales have decreased in the past five years. In addition, the Japanese music streaming market is still underdeveloped. Spotify is expected to launch its service this year and other streaming services still evaluate the market potential in Japan.

Since the physical recorded music market in Japan also declines, the total music sales has been falling for more than a decade. RIAJ, however, does not report sales figures for physical music formats, but production values. Thus, we cannot assess the total music sales for Japan, but only the overall production value of CDs, vinyl discs and other physical formats such as music cassettes, SACDs and music DVDs. Thus, we can observe that the production value of physical music carriers has nearly halved since 2000.

The Japanese recorded music market, thus, is characterised by particularities which will be highlighted in the following analysis.

Continue reading ‘The Recorded Music Market in Japan, 1990-2013′




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